Why are 3x ETFs risky?
The Bottom Line. A leveraged ETF uses derivative contracts to magnify the daily gains of an index or benchmark. These funds can offer high returns, but they also come with high risk and expenses. Funds that offer 3x leverage are particularly risky because they require higher leverage to achieve their returns.
The single biggest risk in ETFs is market risk. Like a mutual fund or a closed-end fund, ETFs are only an investment vehicle—a wrapper for their underlying investment. So if you buy an S&P 500 ETF and the S&P 500 goes down 50%, nothing about how cheap, tax efficient, or transparent an ETF is will help you.
The principal risks associated with investing in inverse ETFs include compounding risk, derivative securities risk, correlation risk, and short sale exposure risk.
Leveraged ETFs are risky investments. The two major risks associated with leveraged ETFs are decay and high volatility. High volatility translates to high risk. Decay emanates from holding the ETFs for long periods.
Leveraged ETFs amplify daily returns and can help traders generate outsized returns and hedge against potential losses. A leveraged ETF's amplified daily returns can trigger steep losses in short periods of time, and a leveraged ETF can lose most or all of its value.
A leveraged ETF uses derivative contracts to magnify the daily gains of an index or benchmark. These funds can offer high returns, but they also come with high risk and expenses. Funds that offer 3x leverage are particularly risky because they require higher leverage to achieve their returns.
So, if you invest in a 3x leveraged ETF, its return ratio would be 3:1. In turn, should the value of the underlying index increase by 1% on a given day, your returns would actually be 3%. The daily nature of these funds ultimately makes them best suited to be short-term securities.
Market risk: Since inverse ETFs are designed to produce the opposite returns of a benchmark, investors must be willing to see declines in price if the benchmark index or asset rises in price.
Leveraged ETFs decay due to the compounding effect of daily returns, volatility of the market and the cost of leverage. The volatility drag of leveraged ETFs means that losses in the ETF can be magnified over time and they are not suitable for long-term investments.
Inverse ETFs are susceptible to market changes, especially news events that could cause the market to move in either direction. Since inverse ETFs are designed as short-term trades, you must be able to get in and out easily.
What is a 3X ETF?
Leveraged 3X ETFs are funds that track a wide variety of asset classes, such as stocks, bonds and commodity futures, and apply leverage in order to gain three times the daily or monthly return of the respective underlying index.
The risks of leverage
Increased financial risk resulting from the cash flow that will be required to service the debt. This additional pressure on cash flow can lead to an increased risk of insolvency and bankruptcy during a downturn.
![Why are 3x ETFs risky? (2024)](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/SLsucH6WM0s/hq720.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEcCNAFEJQDSFXyq4qpAw4IARUAAIhCGAFwAcABBg==&rs=AOn4CLBqpisZlHf4ucjv0locKQH5xQTdIA)
Because leveraged single-stock ETFs in particular amplify the effect of price movements of the underlying individual stocks, investors holding these funds will experience even greater volatility and risk than investors who hold the underlying stock itself.
This longer-term underperformance results from ill-timed rebalancing and the geometric nature of returns compounding. The author uses the concept of a growth-optimized portfolio to show that highly levered ETFs (3x and inverse ETFs) are likely to converge to zero over longer time horizons.
Bank of Montreal launched the Max SPX 500 4x leveraged ETNs, which will be the highest leveraged exchange traded product in the U.S., according to CFRA.
If you held underlying index XYZ directly and then levered it up three times directly with your broker dealer, the losses could potentially cause your position to fall below zero. In other words, you could potentially be liable for more than you invested because you bought the position on leverage.
Fewer than 10 ETFs is likely enough to diversify your portfolio. ETFs are wonderful instruments offering diversification at a minimal cost. Indeed, ETFs are investment vehicles containing many investments and are therefore already diversified.
Further, we see that the sweet spot for leverage is around 2x. At 3x leverage, the returns don't improve enough to compensate for the additional risk. While the 3x variant shows potential in the bull market after 2008, reaping these returns would require the successful management of drawdowns first.
Direxion launched its first leveraged ETFs in 2008. In November 2008 the company was the first to offer ETFs with 3X leverage, a move that was copied some months later by its competitors ProShares and Rydex Investments.
Ticker | Name | 5-year return |
---|---|---|
FNGU | MicroSectors FANG+™ Index 3X Leveraged ETN | 48.17% |
TECL | Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares | 47.98% |
FNGO | MicroSectors FANG+ Index 2X Leveraged ETNs | 45.92% |
ROM | ProShares Ultra Technology | 37.49% |
Can ETFs go to zero?
An ETF follows a particular index and the securities are present at the same weight in it. So, it can be zero when all the securities go to zero.
3x leveraged ETFs look to generate three times the returns of the underlying index. This also means 3x leveraged ETFs also will generate losses that are three times that of the index. It's also key to know that the return is expected on the daily return, not the annual return.
They match the daily return of the underlying index and multiply that. As such, over time, the returns start to get very skewed. The longer you hold onto these leveraged ETF products, the bigger the disparity in returns you'll see (and it's not in your favor). This is called decay - specifically leveraged ETF decay.
Most leveraged and inverse ETFs reset each day, which means they are designed to achieve their stated objective on a daily basis.
The largest Leveraged ETF is the ProShares UltraPro QQQ TQQQ with $19.74B in assets. In the last trailing year, the best-performing Leveraged ETF was NVDL at 357.34%. The most recent ETF launched in the Leveraged space was the FT Vest U.S. Equity Enhance & Moderate Buffer ETF - January XJAN on 01/19/24.
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